From cyclones in India to protests in France: Why systemic shocks need ‘solution design’

Published as UNU-MERIT Blog and republished in several newspapers

Wonder how a social movement in France and a cyclone in India could ever have parallels? Let’s cross the seven Cs to find out.

Consider C for Complexity. We live in a world made up of individuals, groups, artefacts and organizations, which function and interact with one another, following explicit rules and implicit norms. It is complex, because no one can control all the societal outcomes completely or perfectly – not even the State. Even governments face informational problems and lack full monitoring and enforceability capabilities. In complex societies, shocks that trigger evolution can emerge from within the system, like the yellow vest movement; or hit from the outside, like the Gaja cyclone. Governments spend enormous amounts monitoring society and the environment for possible future shocks. But still these shocks just happen and everyone may not be equally prepared.

This brings us to C for Complacency. Following a 23% rise in the cost of diesel and 15% in petrol, President Macron announced that to facilitate an ecological transition, fuel taxes would be further increased. The President’s team expected resistance and were armed with figures to justify their stance. However, the human cyclone that stormed Paris and elsewhere, on Saturday, November 17, wearing bright reflective yellow vests, the gilets jaunes, took them totally by surprise. They had not paid enough attention to the rumblings of their citizenry over the past months, and were totally unprepared.

The Gaja cyclone hit Nagapattinam district in Tamil Nadu state, India, during the early hours of Friday, November 16. Extensive warnings had been issued. I run an NGO called Friend In Need India in Kameshwaram village in the same district.  On Tuesday, November 14, I was talking with Mr. Paranjothi, our field manager. He had just returned from a nearby fishing village, where fishermen had requested us for toilets, our specialty. Their meeting could not be held, as the fishermen in the other village had been busy preparing for the cyclone. On the other hand, in Kameshwaram village, many fishermen had opted for the “wait and see” policy. Apparently, it rains hard for a long time before a cyclone, which would give them enough time to prepare. Well, this time there were barely two hours of rain before the cyclone. You can guess which village suffered higher damages.

Here comes C for connectedness. Today, connectedness can be via digital, physical, or social pathways. The gilets jaunes are a real community born on the internet. Their origins ex-ante can be traced to a petition made in change.org, and the protests were organized as Facebook events, clearly illustrating the enormous power of Facebook as a digital incubator of protests – when allowed by the government. This wouldn’t have been possible in countries like China where access to social media is heavily policed.

In Kameshwaram, after the calamity, electricity, telephone and telecommunications lines were cut and communications were severely affected. Hence, physical connectedness to roads was key. Access to essentials was determined by proximity to motorable roads and the availability of family members to wait by them in case a relief-materials carrying truck passed by. Households in the interior of the sprawling village were thus disadvantaged. At the district level, social connections seemed to matter the most. It was felt that the majority of relief went to Vedaranyam town, not only because it suffered great damage, but also because the State Minister in charge of relief operations is from Vedaranyam.

Following this is yet another C, for Contamination. In France, discontent began to spread and contaminate more people like an epidemic, leading them to voice discontent on more issues. As the French government reconsidered its tax hike, the gilets jaunes expanded the scope of their grievances to cover a variety of points including tax cuts for employers and the wealthy, welfare cuts, non-renewal of public sector jobs and rise in living costs.

In Nagapattinam, the source and process of contamination were different. In Indian villages, the poor not only have thatched huts, but also asbestos sheets as roofs or even walls. Now, asbestos sheets are very carcinogenic when broken or cracked. India is one of the few countries, where they are still not banned.  In villages, unsuspecting people without any protective gear are picking up asbestos debris after the Gaja cyclone, and dumping them along with other waste, which will all go to landfills, where more uninformed people will sort them out.

Unfortunately this brings us to C for Criminality. In a complex system, shocks can cause chaos. In France, some individuals, taking advantage of the gilets jaunes movement, sprayed graffiti on the national monument, the Arc de Triomphe, disfigured busts, and pillaged the souvenir shop there, and they also broke and looted shops on the Champs-Élysées. Similarly, the relief operations in the aftermath of the Gaja cyclone also attracted criminality, albeit on a much lower scale. Incoming vehicles with relief materials were ransacked. Indeed, we experienced this firsthand. A company had sent us a truckload of relief materials, but along the road to Kameshwaram, it was stopped by marauders and all relief materials were stolen.

When chaos happens with its accompanying damage, the government is expected to come up with a big C or Cure. President Macron was booed in Paris by the gilets jaunes, leading him to offer to inject $11.45 billion into the economy. In Nagapattinam, Minister Manian’s convoy was attacked by angry villagers, unhappy with the state of the relief operations. In Kameshwaram, the fishermen did not go back to the sea. Instead, they got into trucks and went to Nagapattinam to protest. They wanted new boats. In response to these demands, the Indian central government is releasing about $165 million for relief.

In sum, though worlds apart, the gilets jaunes cyclone in France, and the Gaja cyclone in India, followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory of impact over time, going through similar stages. First, the complexity of their systems, and the complacency of their monitoring and responses triggered eruption. The connectedness of their actors, or lack of it, facilitated and reinforced their expansion. While gathering force, there was chaos and contamination, strengthening people, while poisoning their environment. Criminality served as a pressure relief valve at the top of the inverted U-curve, before the Cure rose to soothe the phenomena and bring relief.

But, is fiscal relief sufficient in the medium or long term? Are the yellow vested the first casualties of the fourth industrial revolution, and if so, can they turn it back? If climate change is going to continue as predicted, there will be more cyclones, typhoons and tsunamis. Can the government replace all boats each time?  Or can they improve their prediction mechanisms and get better prepared to minimize major losses? Nothing is obvious except that no government can tackle such challenges alone. We need to reach out to that one final C now, which at present is too muted to solve our puzzle, and point us towards viable solution designs. And that is Community Engagement, that must be deepened, widened, and increased in terms of variety and partnered with the State and the private sector for sustainable development.